All is uncertain for the U.S. Very. Yet, around the world governments examine closely the entrails for signs of what foreign policy may be like after November. So much hangs on it. But it is rather like trying to pin down passing clouds – for whatever the outcome in November, the losing party will likely never be the same again; and equally, however, the winning party is unlikely ever to be the same, either. That is, if there is a ‘winner’.
And that latter outcome is a real possibility: i.e. that neither Party may be able to have their win nationally certified. This may come about, should ‘one’ contender claim a 270 College delegate lead, but with the ‘other’ claiming popular ‘legitimacy’ having won the popular vote (yet be still be short of a majority in the Electoral College). There is little doubt that ballot counts, or suspicions of gerrymandering, will, on this occasion, be challenged across many states, right up to the Supreme Court.
The U.S. has a long history of ballot fraud. And this is why absentee and postal ballots are such a hot-button issue. But legal challenges this time round may become a veritable tsunami, taking weeks to be resolved in the Supreme Court (in spite of its having a ‘hairs’ breadth’, Republican leaning). The claims of election fraud may be exacerbated by the likelihood of GOP votes being counted early (Republicans traditionally vote in person), giving the impression of an early lead, but with the Blue (controversial) postal votes coming in, and being counted, later. And perhaps then changing the picture in some way.
Hilary Clinton already has warned that Biden should not concede the election under any circumstances. This, in contrast to Al Gore, the Democratic nominee in the 2000 election, who did reluctantly conceded defeat following weeks of bitter legal battles over disputed vote counts in the state of Florida.
Gore had won the national popular vote by more than 500,000 votes, but the reversal in Florida gave Bush the 271 Electoral College delegates he needed to be certified the winner, and he became President. Gore was deeply disappointed, and had sharply disagreed with the Supreme Court verdict (partisan rancour, he called it) that ended his campaign.
Well, it is again going to be partisan, and bitter. The stakes could not be higher. Pelosi has labelled the Republicans “domestic enemies” of election integrity, and as “enemies of the state”, which in conjunction with Clinton’s ‘no conceding the election’ dictum sounds, rather as if the Gore precedent is definitely ‘off the table’ for the Democratic Party. The strategy seems set. Pelosi made her expectations about the consequences explicit in a July interview, when she indicated she might become the next U.S. President.
Bill Bramhall, New York Daily News