Let’s cut to the chase: Ankara 2016 is not Sarajevo 1914. This is not a prelude to WWIII. Whoever plotted the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov – a cool, calm, collected old-school diplomat - risks a mighty blowback.
The assassin, Mevlut Mert Altintas, was a 22-year-old police academy graduate. He was suspended from the Turkish National Police (TNP) over suspected links to the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) after the failed July 15 putsch against Erdogan but returned to duty in November.
It’s no secret Gulenists heavily infiltrate the TNP; so a particular outcome of the attack will be an, even more, relentless Erdogan/AKP crackdown on the Gulen network. The Turkish investigation will have to focus not only on the (major) security service fail at Ankara’s modern art center – but way beyond. It’s not very reassuring that Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu put out a terse statement a very long three hours after the facts.
READ MORE: Assassin shouts 'Allahu Akbar, don't forget Syria' after shooting Russian ambassador (GRAPHIC VIDEO)
The killer in a black suit and tie shouted slogans about revenge “for Aleppo” – the requisite “Allahu Akbar” included – in both Turkish and broken Arabic, something that might establish a connection to an Islamist group’s rhetoric, although that’s not conclusive evidence.
Timing is crucial. The hit happened only one day before the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran were scheduled to meet in Moscow for a key Syria strategic discussion. They were already closely in touch for the past few weeks on how to strike a comprehensive deal on Aleppo – and beyond.
READ MORE: Assassination of ambassador an attack on relations with Russia – Erdogan
And this right after the crucial, previously established Putin-Erdogan agreement, which implied no less than thousands of “moderate rebels” responding to Turkey’s commands being able to use a “corridor” out of Aleppo. Ankara was fully on board with the plan. That in itself eliminates the possibility of an Ankara-provoked false flag.
President Putin for his part made it very clear he wants to be informed on who “directed” the killer. That’s something that could be interpreted as subtle code for Russian intel already very much in the know.